When one receives phone calls from Oz tipping you a first-starter in Hong Kong, only a dullard won’t listen: And in NSW, the natives are getting restless and beating their drums fast, loud and furiously about the John Size-trained Dr Super which makes its Hong Kong debut in Race 5.
How good is this Dr. Super? Who knows? But we all know how good John Size is as a trainer and we also know that he has an incredible group of newcomers in his stable- and all either ready to fire or firing on all cylinders. Dr. Super has not been rushed by Dr. John. It’s not Size’s way of getting his horses ready for a first-up win- no matter what the owners might want. Dr. Super has been given five trials and he is primed to take on all tomorrow [Tuesday]. What might be his dangers? I doubt there’ll be any as this is a pretty weak Class 4 race. There are Peppermint, Iron Hawk, Diligent 111 and Fortune Bravo, but all are just horses. They don’t have that X Factor. They are more like the Y Factor.
Elsewhere, I find it interesting to see Surfer Boy going around in Shatin in Race 2 and to be ridden by struggling local jockey Terry CW Wong who desperately needs some winners to keep his license.
I doubt Surfer Boy will provide him with one but I’ll be watching its run with regards to see if it’s worth backing when it steps out in Happy Valley.
With regular jockey Howard Cheng on what I think will come down very close to winning the race- Gold Racer- what’s the bet that Cheng will be back on Surfer Boy when it runs in Happy Valley?
Surfer Boy is an “odds horse” and, despite seemingly being out of form recently, it can never be ruled out when it tackles Happy Valley.
The horse has pulled off some good plunges- especially one very good QP plunge early in its career in Hong Kong which even its trainer- Dennis Yip- was not expecting.
One horse, I’ll take a pass in backing will be Palepale in Race 7. Yes, yes, it won its last start, but at the odds it paid, I really doubt the win was expected.
In fact, I think this was a fluke win and I would not touch this horse. In this same all-weather race is Rhumba King and this is another one, I’ll leave out of my win bets.
This is a race which can easily throw up an outsider. And with a Six Up Bonus Jackpot of HK$6.5m to win, why waste time backing favourites?
I am willing to bet that Rhumba King and Palepale will be well under the odds. And that Rumba King will not even be spelt correctly.
If taking a Six Up, I’ll use Let Me Handle It, Smart Giant and, perhaps, Zaidan in Race 10 and go searching for value elsewhere.
In fact, Let Me Handle It and Smart Giant look very good double bankers in Race 10 which is the last leg of the Treble and the second leg of the third Triple Trio.
Who do I like in the first leg which is Race 9?
Bullish Champion and Oriental Prosper look like good double and single bankers.
Legs I like are El Zonda, Topping Light and Cheetah Boy.
King Mossman has been a big disappointment like that other John Size-trained galloper in Supreme Jewellery.
Both are gallopers Size seems to have tried everything with but has yet to unlock what’s the key to their inability to win.
If King Mossman wins, it will be without my hard-earned.
What else?
The two French whiz kids- Maxime Guyon and Mickael Barzalona- are either not getting on the right horses or else are “tres fatigue” and riding without that expected je ne sais quoi.
The whiz kids are looking more like woose kids though I quite like Guyon on Royal Doctor in Race 7 to at least place.
Still, why back wooses?
Who will win the Jockeys Challenge- that is apart from Douglas Whyte?
Well, the Durban Demon should- I reckon he’ll rack up another treble and should be taken as a banker on all three legs of the Triple Trio- but others with good chances for points are Vincent CY Ho and, perhaps, Matthew Chadwick.
I can’t see anyone else coming within sniffing distance of the Whyte Man.
All in all, a day which looks relatively easy, but don’t we say that all the time?
Races 7 and 8 give me the shakes as they are trappy affairs whereas if Dr. Super lands everyone in the soup, well, that’s where the Six Up and Triple Trio will add value.
So, back to doing my homework.
Good luck and go easy.
January 1, 2012 is around the corner.
The Guru
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