SOME (DEEP) THOUGHTS ON THE HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL RACES
CATHAY PACIFIC HONG KONG VASE
#3 SILVER POND has European form lengths ahead of anyone else.
He nosed out 2010 Arc favorite Behkabad early this year albeit in favorable conditions, finished a decent closing third to 2011 Arc favorite Sarafina and Cirrus Des Aigles in France in a slow-run race, and finished in a clump of horses in the Arc that included Snow Fairy, So You Think, Breeders’ Cup winner St Nicholas Abbey, and Sarafina.
Silver Pond came from last in that on-pace dominated Arc and the likes of Snow Fairy had the advantage of sitting closer.
He’d prefer a strong pace which he won’t get, and the inside draw isn’t a positive but he’s the class horse.
#13 VADAMAR is the only danger on form because he still has room for improvement.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWfv7NyuQLA
#4 CAMPANOLOGIST has never measured up to top class races in Europe and Dubai, having to go to weaker racing nations to pick up G1s.
He’s reportedly thriving so perhaps you can’t rule him out, but Silver Pond and Vadamar have his measure on form.
I don’t like the Melbourne Cup horses on a win line because Americain is better than those and even he found it difficult to accelerate off a slow pace over 12 furlongs. But this is a slightly weaker Vase so who knows?
CATHAY PACIFIC HONG KONG MILE
#13 SAHPRESA is the standout.
She would’ve won last year but was unable to find cover from the draw.
She’s a risk of not getting cover again but if she does she has the class edge over Xtension.
She’s run a close 2nd to Goldikova and proved herself to be as good as the very best Japanese milers.
#3 RAJSAMAN is better over 9 furlongs and would need some pace to threaten.
#1 CITYSCAPE is much better on wet tracks, but he’s shown his form on fast going once in awhile as well, running only a few lengths behind Canford Cliffs and Goldikova at Ascot. Might pick up some prize-money at good odds but tough to be confident.
Watch out for #9 FLYING BLUE.
John Size hinted that he might take up the lead.
He’s better than his 3rd last start; he pulled quite hard mid-race so if he gets a better gallop he’ll improve.
#9 OUTDOOR PEGASUS is another sneaky chance
He pulls in most of his races including last start, but in his best races he’s matched it with an on-song Xtension so if the pace is more even he can surprise.
#11 FAT CHOY OOHLALA is similar to Outdoor Pegasus (maybe has a bit more ability) in that he’s up to the level, but hasn’t drawn a gate.
CATHAY PACIFIC HONG KONG CUP
At his peak Byword is just as good as a horse called Twice Over, who had close form with 2009 HK Cup winner Vision D’Etat.
Vision D’Etat brushed aside Collection and showed himself to be a better horse than Irian last year from a bad gate.
Byword struggled at the Breeders’ Cup last start but that was over a mile which is too short for him and he was squeezed up too.
I think the HK horses have a great chance to take this out but these two raiders are high class animals.
Expect #6 CALIFORNIA MEMORY to sit midfield from the draw and if he gets a run through he might blow them away.
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