May 29, 20163 min read

THE FAST TRACKER GOES LOOKING FOR VALUE AT SHATIN TODAY

Ever since today’s card came out, the word has been the same: Welcome to the Joao Show where he can easily ride 5-6 winners. And, sure, looking at his book of rides, Joao Moreira looks set to stamp his complete dominance of Hong Kong racing even further while setting new records in the process- records he has set.

Funny, isn’t it? Joao Moreira’s biggest competition comes from bettering and battering the tremendously high standards he has set for himself. Talk about a one horse race…

Let’s also stop saying that what Joao Moreira is doing almost every race day is what Douglas Whyte did when champion Hong Kong jockey. Nothing will ever take away the consecutive thirteen Hong Kong Jockey Premierships that Whyte won. But times change and everything improves in the process. Today’s music is probably the only thing that has regressed into a mosh pit of beats and repetition like Rihanna working it- whatever “it” is- to the poetry that is “Work, Work, Work, Work, Work, Work”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL1UzIK-flAc

Just like a young Douglas Whyte smashed the records set by the freakish success of that other great South African champion in Hong Kong- Basil Marcus, below, Joao Moreira continues to raise the bar. He is the latest model and rides better than anyone else before him by riding differently and with his own bag of tricks.

After all, even magicians and illusionists have evolved over the years. The world has applauded -and continues to applaud- everyone from Houdini and David Copperfield to the magic of Kris Angel and David Blaine. Well, maybe not Copperfield.

As for today at Shatin and horse racing’s Brazilian Magic Man, there are two ways of looking at the races; either sit back and watch Moreira set new records, or else, if a punter and looking for value, seeing where the Magic Man’s rides might be under the odds, and where not even this brilliant rider’s formidable talents cannot help to get them first past the winning post. With this in mind, don’t be surprised to see Nash Rawiller right to the fore in many finishes and amongst the winners.

Today might be the day when The Gnasher with his elbows flying in all directions like a headless chicken serves up a few winners wok fried and with sautéed onions and garlic while pulling out a few rabbits from his own hat.

With a massive $11 million Six Up jackpot up for grabs, the recommendation would be to focus on this and the Quartet in the last race. These are where there’s value- huge value.

If for example, even two of Moreira’s rides that are at around 2 to 1 get beaten, that’s when the Six Up will pay. With the Six Up, what might make sense is to stand out the Moreira rides that look bomb-proof and take 4-5 other picks in the other legs.

Where the value comes in is if Rapper Dragon, Lucky Girl and Racing Supernova get beaten into a placing. Perhaps hard to see, but there are no certainties in horse racing. The only certainty right now is that Joao Moreira will win the Hong Kong Jockey Premiership and be voted Hong Kong’s Most Popular Jockey whereas the always understated, astute and brilliant John Size will ride off with another Trainer’s Championship.

Not being a form analyst like Paul Lally or being competition to all the professional tipsters around, below are just personal choices- and which could easily change depending on the mood of those fickle weather gods.

Where and when to start getting serious about having a bet? Perhaps the first two races? Nah. These are just a couple of races- starters before the main course that can even be ignored- to maybe have a go at snaring the Quartets. The real business at hand would be to attack the international buffet with a special Japanese section- extremely popular with local tastes- at the brilliantly designed venue called Hay Market, which, like Adrenaline at Happy Valley Racecourse, remains virgin territory to so many in Hong Kong racing. Well, it’s their loss.

And on the subjects of winners and losers, below are some choices, which you can delete or use as part of your betting strategy. Whatever you do, happy punting and good luck!

RACE 1 6-4-14-10